Initial adjustment: mortgage interest rates will not fall
How does the LPR reduction affect stock and debt housing?
Initial adjustment: mortgage interest rates will not fall
Breakthrough response to “first day rate cut”!
How does the LPR reduction affect stock and debt housing?
First-class setting, mortgage interest rates will not fall!
Whether or not to lower the target and cut interest rates also set the tone for brokerage China. On August 20, the first quote after the reform of the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) formation mechanism was born.
At around 9:30, China Currency Network announced the results of the new LPR first quotation, and the one-year LPR quotation4.
25% with a 5-year LPR of 4.
As expected by the market, the one-year LPR interest rate after the reform ushered in a long-reduced downward adjustment, and relied on the LPR quote to link the one-year debt benchmark interest rate. Therefore, the lack of flexibility led to a sideways price of 4.
31% for 16 months (1 year loan benchmark interest rate 4).
This downward adjustment is predicted to be an important landmark event in the consolidation of loan interest rates, opening up space for further declines in loan interest rates.
For the “first day rate cut”, the first time the transition is called “notes”.
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People ‘s Bank of China, announced at a regular briefing on the State Council ‘s policies on August 20th that the People ‘s Bank of China will release an announcement on the interest rate policy for personal housing loans based on a full investigation.
The new LPR formation mechanism will not cause mortgage interest rates to fall.
In the financial industry, due attention should be paid to the fact that the real estate should not be separated. At the same time, avoid real estate instrumentation.
Liu Guoqiang also said that real estate should not be used as a means of short-term economic stimulus, and personal housing loan interest rates should be kept basically stable.Interest rates do not fall.
“Is China lowering its quota and interest rates?
Liu Guoqiang said that the short-term mainly depends on reforms (improving the formation of the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) formation mechanism). After the reform, depending on the situation, there is room for lowering standards and lowering interest rates.
However, after the release of the LRP, the yield of treasury bond futures and inter-bank bond yields did not change much after the first release of the new version of the LPR, and the securities response was quite flat, as the one-year LPR decline was basically in line with expectations.
In terms of A shares, all three major stock indexes increased, the press release was terminated, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly.
At 06%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose slightly.
32%, the banking sector declined, with a decrease of 0.
For banks, it is still short-term negative. From the perspective of today’s sector, the banking sector is the same as yesterday.
The LPR “rate cut” did not exceed market expectations that the current one-year MLF interest rate was at 3.
3%, 1-year loan benchmark interest rate level 4.
35%, because some banks set a certain multiple of the benchmark lending rate (such as 0.
9 times, or 3.
915%) As the lower limit of the hidden interest rate, will the initial offer for the new LPR be at an alternative level?
The market generally believes that for the first time, the LPR interest rate or the earlier one-year benchmark interest rate will be lowered by about 5bp-10bp. Therefore, a large number of analysis believes that after the new LPR is launched, the actual loan interest rate will not be significantly changed in the short term, and interest rates will fallIt will be a slow process.
Ma Wanpeng, chief banking analyst of Shen Wanhongyuan, estimates that 3.
915% is the actual bottom line of the current loan interest rate. LPR shoulders the title of “optimal lending rate.” It is expected that the pricing of banks and borrowers will be used as the new bottom line of lending rates. The first 无锡桑拿网 LPR quote is between 3.
35% probability of competition.
As expected by the market, today’s first quote for LPR is 10bps lower than the one-year loan benchmark interest rate, of which the one-year LPR is lower than the previous four.The 31% level dropped by 6bp.
In addition to the change in the quotation method, another highlight of this LPR reform is the addition of products with a term of more than 5 years. The interest rate indicates that the increase of terms with a term of more than 5 years will provide a reference for the pricing of long-term loans such as home mortgage loans.It is also feasible to make a smooth transition from the long-term floating interest rate loan contract pricing benchmark of the future to LPR.
Obviously the highest budget, there are two possibilities for pricing of products over 5 years: one is the form of fixed-term interest 青岛夜网 rate spreads, which are based on the term interest rate of the benchmark loan interest rate; the other is the pricing of the loan interest rate curve based on the bond yield curve.
For the first time 4.
85% of the 5-year LPR quote results, clearly told the brokerage Chinese reporter that this result should refer to two indicators, one is the spread of the benchmark interest rate on the one-year and five-year loans, and the other is the one-year andSpread on 5-year AAA corporate bonds.
At present, 4.
The 85% result is slightly higher than these two spreads, but overall is still within expectations.
Li Qilin, chief economist of Lianxun Securities, said that the 5-year price is 4.
85%, with a one-year spread of 60BP, the spread of the earlier benchmark curve (55BP) widened, the actual decline in the 5-year LPR was narrower, implying “housing and living without speculation”, strengthening the principle of policy.
There is still room for policy interest rate cuts and targeted RRR cuts. In fact, although the purpose of LPR reform is to guide the real interest rate of loans through a market-based approach to reduce the real economy’s financing costs, from the perspective of its reform mechanism,In the case of other conditions being unchanged, the previous reduction in LPR will not be too large, and accordingly, the actual reduction in loan interest rate will not be significant.
”Increase the number of quotation banks and reform the quotation calculation method. If the factors of new quotations in each row are not taken into account, the arithmetic protrusion will increase; the changes in quotation methods and the expansion of the quotation bank’s coverage will have opposite effects on the new LPR price, which will lead to new LPRIt doesn’t drop very much.
“We are clearly weighing that the current concentration of debt interest rates has been market-oriented and the debt is rigid. From the perspective of the narrowing of bank interest margins, the decline in debt interest rates will not be too large in the short term.
In the long run, it is necessary to reduce the policy interest rate in order to achieve an increase in interest rates.
In addition, as the interest rate of deposits and loans shrinks during the decline in loan interest rates, the reduction of bank debt costs requires targeted quantitative support.
Excessive analysis also generally believes that if LPR is to be guided to continue to decline, there are subsequent “new-style interest rate reduction”
methods such as lowering the MLF operation rate to further guide the promotion and possibility of attenuating the downlink.
In addition, in order to hedge the distortionary effect of the potential narrowing of deposit and loan spreads during the decline in loan interest rates for small and medium-sized banks, there is still room for targeted RRR cuts.
In the end, when will interest rates for policies such as MLF be reduced?
Some analysts believe that the time window may be after the September Fed’s interest rate meeting.
“If the Federal Reserve reserves are cut again in September, the spread between China and the United States will widen, leaving more room for domestic monetary policy. At that time, the domestic policy rate will be lowered, and the pressure on the exchange rate will be relatively small.
A macro analyst in Beijing told a Chinese reporter at the securities firm.
Zhongtai Securities Research also believes that the first interest rate after LPR reform will be announced on the 20th, and next Monday will face the MLF sequel due on the 24th, but the probability of MLF remaining unchanged at that time.
Banks should respond to LPR reforms. Some banks will issue pricing guidance. The combination of loan interest rates will have a big impact on banks, including how banks manage risks and how IT systems are adjusted. The differentiation of the entire industry may be further intensified.For some banks, it will erode the spread of deposits and loans in the short term.
This is because from a bank perspective, future loan quotes need to refer to the MLF interest rate level more. In addition to determining the cost of loans, the cost of liabilities such as deposits is an important influencing factor. At present, bank deposit rates are still on the basis of depositDetermined on the basis of interest rates, this may bring the effect of “asymmetric interest rate cuts.”
The macro team of Ping An Securities believes that interest rates and the credit interest rate of banks will fall after the merger, and the deposit and loan spread will narrow, and banks may sink the quality of credit assets. Credit risk monitoring and pricing capabilities need to be greatly improved.
Once the marketization of deposit interest rates and bank debt costs as a whole go up, some banks may have to raise lending rates. This stage is the period when banks are under the most stress.
The bank is also preparing intensively.
Hang Seng Bank (China) Co., Ltd. said on the 19th that it has reached the first batch of loans priced with reference to the new loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) with long-term corporate customers.
This batch of loan budget is nearly 1.
500 million US dollars, mainly for private enterprises in North China, East China, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Greater Bay Area, covering trade financing, revolving loans and other types of loans.
A reporter from a brokerage firm in China has learned that some internal banks have issued notices to their branches, requesting that changes in the LPR policy should be quickly translated into each account manager, do a good job of reform response and customer interpretation, and prevent and control public opinion risks.
Another executive of a branch in a southern province of a large bank disclosed to reporters that the bank currently requires branches to expand the use of LPR-based quotation applications to prevent price changes caused by the conversion of old and new quotations. The head office re-issued specific pricing guidance.
For the counterparty, what is the impact of the stock market bond market? According to the announcement of the exchange, August 20 is the first quotation after the LPR reform. From today, banks should refer to the loan market quotation and pricing in newly issued loans, andIn the floating rate loan contract, the loan market quoted interest rate is used as the pricing benchmark. Therefore, starting from the 20th, the pricing of newly issued loans will refer to LPR.
Ma Yupeng told the Chinese reporters of the securities firms that after the LPR reform, the benefits for high-quality companies will decrease, which will reduce the cost of financing. For personal loans, the credit card installment interest rate is usually a fixed rate.There will be no impact, and the housing mortgage loan requires a 5-year annual LPR pricing mechanism, which is still constantly blurred.
Li Qilin believes that from the decline in the first quote, the high cost of bank debt may be an important factor in reducing the declining interest rate. If we want to further reduce the cost of physical financing: Either forcibly reducing the loan interest rate, but it will lead to further financing needs.Weakness, imbalance in supply and demand; or long-term reduction of the one-year MLF interest rate, or the guidance of a comprehensive loosening of the cost of comprehensive debt through currency easing.
Two paths are good for the bond market initially, but only the second path is good for the stock market.
Huatai Securities’ solid income team also believes that after the LPR reform, MLF adjusts the probability of timely growth, but the OMO interest rate may not be followed. The goal is to reduce the financing cost of the entity and help steady growth.
The stock market was not unexpected. Bank stocks were adjusted as a concessioner (the asset side changed anchors and the debt side remained unchanged), and other sectors constituted a positive.
However, the new mechanism is still being explored. The actual impact will take time to manifest, and the short-term will be limited.