Depth-Company-Changan Automobile (000625): Low points have passed Q3 and non-performing results have continued to improve

Depth * Company * Changan Automobile (000625): Low point has passed Q3, non-performing performance continued to improve

The company released the third quarter report for 2019, and achieved a total operating income of 451 in the first three quarters.

2 ‰, the ten-year average of 9.

5%; net mother formaldehyde 26.

600 million, previously 328.

8%, deducting non-return to mother’s net reduction of 35.

30,000 yuan, the budget may be 0.

08 yuan, performance in line with expectations.

The continuous improvement of the company’s Q3 non-performance after deductions was mainly due to a rebound in sales and significant cost reduction benefits.

Changan Ford’s reorganized marketing system can usher in a new round of product cycles, and sales and performance are expected to usher in an inflection point.

The company’s estimated earnings for 2019-2021 are -0.

22 yuan, 0.

63 yuan and 1.

10 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Key points of support level The automobile market has experienced a significant increase in sales volume, with poor performance in the first three quarters.

The company’s own brand sales in the first three quarters of 2019 were 58.

100,000, at least -19.

2%, company revenue is -9.

5%, mainly due to the improvement of the company’s product structure and an increase in average price.

Gross profit margin 11.

8%, higher than -3.

The 4 points were mainly due to the decrease in sales volume and the vigorous promotion of stocks going to China Five.

The company’s sales expenses in the first three quarters were -28.

0%, mainly due to the decrease in product sales affecting the use of business resources and freight, reduction in promotional expenses, etc .; management costs -5.

2% is mainly due to the company’s strengthening of cost control; R & D expenses +20.

9% is mainly invested in R & D of new cars, new energy and intelligent driving; financial expenses +61.

4% is mainly due to a reduction in interest income; the four expense ratios total.

3%, a slight decrease of 0 a year.

1pct; Changan Ford and Changan Mazda sales are broken down into 58 respectively.

2%, 25.

4%, resulting in an investment income of -5 to joint ventures.

800 million, down 18 every year.

1 billion; government subsidies 7.

600 million, at least -6.

5 billion.

The rapid growth rate of income and gross profit margin, investment income and government subsidies have been reduced in advance, resulting in serious defects in the company in the first three quarters.

Sales rebounded and continued to reduce costs, and Q3’s non-performing performance continued to improve.

The company’s own brand sales in Q3 2019 were 18.

80,000 vehicles, +0 per year.4%, +17.

8%, income +7 per night.

3%, +9 from the previous quarter.

9%; gross profit margin 18.

8% +0 per year.

8pct, +6 chain.

9pct; sales, management, R & D, and financial expenses are +0 each year.

3%, -27.

2%, +34.

6%, +69.

8%, four expense ratios of 16.

8%, twice -2.

3pct, ring than +2.

4pct; Changan Ford and Changan Mazda sales are subdivided into 33.

6%, 9.

3%, an increase of 40% from the previous month.

1%, 20.

9%, joint venture investment income -4.

700 million, at least -3.

400 million, compared with -7.

500 million; government subsidies

400 million, at least -1.

400 million, -4 chain.

200000000.

Third quarter of 2019

2 ‰, at least -0.

300 million, +2 chain.

800 million; net return after deduction is 6.
.

2 ‰, +0 for one year.

900 million, -1 ring.

300 million.

It is expected that the expansion and narrowing of Q3 after deductions will mainly benefit from the sales volume increase and continuous cost reduction, and gradually continue to improve in the future.

The industry is expected to recover and complement Ford’s new product cycle, and the company is expected to usher in an inflection point.

Corsair, 北京夜网 the new ESCAPE and Lincoln’s first domestic model in 2019Q4, will be launched. In 2020, Ford Explorer, Lincoln Flying Home, and Lincoln MKZ domestic models will also be launched.

NSND adjusted its sales strategy to “determine production with sales” to effectively alleviate dealer inventory and operating pressure.

The follow-up auto market is expected to gradually pick up, and to extend the cycle of Changan Ford to usher in a new car. The industry resonates with the company and the transmission of profit elasticity. The company is expected to usher in the expected recovery opportunity.

It is estimated that the overall revenue and competition in the automobile market is intensifying. We lower the company’s profit forecast and expect the company’s earnings in 2019-2021 to be -0.

22 yuan, 0.

63 yuan and 1.

10 yuan, considering that Changan Ford’s sales and profit expectations are picking up in the second half of the year, Lincoln will realize localization, and the company’s current PB is only about 0.8 times or so, some higher safety margins, maintaining the company’s buy rating