Tianmu Lake (603136) Company Update Report: The Outward Expansion of the Target of Scarce Private Scenic Spots Brings Imagination Space
This report reads: The company is a scarce and high-quality private scenic spot with high operating efficiency and positioning in line with the trend of consumption upgrade.
Incremental projects are expected to contribute incremental results, and the model can be replicated to store extension expectations.
Key points of investment: Raise investment to improve the layout of high-end leisure tourism, and store the expected expansion of extension.
The change in the company’s incremental project duration will result in a decrease in the incremental performance in 2019, and the EPS attributable to the parent will be reduced to 1 in 2019.
50 yuan / share (-0.
44), adding 2020-21 profit forecast, it is expected to return to the mother EPS1.
12 yuan / share.
The private attractions have strong profitability and are given higher than the industry average of 30xPE. However, considering that the overall price is affected 杭州夜生活网 by the ticket price adjustment, it is estimated that the target price will be lowered to 45.
00 yuan, overweight.
The fundraising project will target high-end leisure products and will contribute incremental performance.
① Supply and demand of existing hotels during peak season. The second phase of the hot spring project is aimed at high-end customers and will improve the supply capacity of high-end products.Shanshuiyuan sightseeing tram project and Nanshan Zhuhai ropeway upgrade project.
The upgrading of sightseeing trams and ropeways will improve the efficiency of passenger flow in attractions and further increase profitability.
The company is a scarce privately-run scenic spot with high efficiency and leading profitability industry.
① The company is a rare private natural scenic spot, and the controlling shareholder 北京夜网 and actual controller hold 51% of the shares.
45%; approximately 60 million shares of shareholders will be lifted in September 2020; ② the company has high management efficiency, high proportion of secondary consumption, diversified income structure, low dependence on ticket prices, gross profit margin 62%, net profit margin 24
12%, deducting non-ROE is 11.
35%, leading the industry.
The company has both the advantages of location and compound ecology, and expects to expand and expand.
① Tianmu Lake is located in the 3-hour urban tourism circle of the Yangtze River Delta, with obvious location advantages; ② A composite landscape built around natural resources, suitable for all seasons, and the sudden change in passenger flow is relatively weak; ③ The management team has strong capabilities, rich experience in tourism management, and a mode thatReproducible and the company has intent to replicate offsite.
Risk reminder: weather affects passenger flow; project construction progress uncertainty; future lifting of the ban